JimmieCobson
2024 oldGOD
- Joined
- Jun 30, 2024
- Messages
- 419
Assuming Trump doesn't fuck it all up with an asinine primary endorsement, the NJGOP is looking like it's gonna nominate Jack Ciattarelli (our nominee in 2021 and the man who singlehandedly made New Jersey into the swing state that it now is) for the governor's race this November. I still think that Ciattarelli will lose, but I think he keeps the race within 2-4% which isn't bad at all for a former state representative with little name ID.
In Virginia, we're running incumbent lieutenant governor Winsome Sears (this fills me with unimaginable sadness). The party establishment pushed out Attorney General Jason Miyares (who is actually keyed and was the only candidate to unseat an incumbent in the 2021 statewide races and a popular incumbent at that), leading to Sears essentially being handed the nomination on a silver platter. Now, Sears makes for an excellent sacrificial lamb, if anything. Spanberger is a fake moderate Dem and that's the kind of branding that gives you absolutely massive margins in the swingy NoVA exurbs.
Sears is no Youngkin. Hell, Sears isn't even a Ken Cuccinelli or an Ed Gillespie tier candidate. Sears has managed piss off the base by igniting a yearslong feud with Trump that will only serve to alienate the rural Virginia voters that she absolutely needs to win over. And her whole moderate schtick simply isn't as convincing as Spanberger's. Our best case scenario in Virginia would be like D+5, and our most likely scenario would be something like D+8.
TL;DR New Jersey Republicans have an incredible recruit, the Virginia Republicans are shooting themselves in the foot only four years after saving themselves from complete irrelevance statewide.
In Virginia, we're running incumbent lieutenant governor Winsome Sears (this fills me with unimaginable sadness). The party establishment pushed out Attorney General Jason Miyares (who is actually keyed and was the only candidate to unseat an incumbent in the 2021 statewide races and a popular incumbent at that), leading to Sears essentially being handed the nomination on a silver platter. Now, Sears makes for an excellent sacrificial lamb, if anything. Spanberger is a fake moderate Dem and that's the kind of branding that gives you absolutely massive margins in the swingy NoVA exurbs.
Sears is no Youngkin. Hell, Sears isn't even a Ken Cuccinelli or an Ed Gillespie tier candidate. Sears has managed piss off the base by igniting a yearslong feud with Trump that will only serve to alienate the rural Virginia voters that she absolutely needs to win over. And her whole moderate schtick simply isn't as convincing as Spanberger's. Our best case scenario in Virginia would be like D+5, and our most likely scenario would be something like D+8.
TL;DR New Jersey Republicans have an incredible recruit, the Virginia Republicans are shooting themselves in the foot only four years after saving themselves from complete irrelevance statewide.
