Mongoloigul
The Mongoloid Jungle has Arise
- Joined
- Oct 4, 2024
- Messages
- 1,306
Everybody seems to do this at one point or another, so I have decided to try my own hand at this.
What actually inspired me was a video I saw on YouTube where three different alternate history YouTubers were debating how best to change history so that Germany would win World War 2. I decided that I would make my own version of this, using my preferred alternate history style. I looked at Germany's three main enemies in World War 2 (Russia, Britain, and the United States) and tried to identify when Germany came closest to defeating them, and what probable divergences I could use to tip the odds in the favor of the Nazis. I would break down my ideas as I go year by year through the divergences.
1931
The closest Germany ever came to defeating Britain was in the very beginning of the war, 1940-1941. The British were unprepared for war, Germany seemed invincible, and many in Britain felt that fighting on was hopeless and they should seek a negotiated peace. Winston Churchill was the backbone of British resistance to the Germans. He held firm against all calls for a negotiated peace and insisted Britain fight to the end. Therefore, for Germany to win, Churchill must die.
The best opportunity is in 1931, when Winston Churchill got in an accident while in New York because he forgot which way cars drive on American streets. IOTL, he survived the accident with a few cracked ribs. ITTL, the car is going a bit faster and hits at a slightly different angle, and Churchill suffers internal injuries and died in the hospital.
1933
The only reliable way for Germany to defeat America, is not to fight America. As soon as America enters the war, victory is nearly impossible for the Germans. However, keeping America out of the war is very plausible. Even in 1940, Americans were more than 70% in favor of isolationism. Franklin D. Roosevelt all but dragged America into the war, leveeing heavy embargoes on Japan and providing far more aid to Britain that would be permitted under the laws regarded neutral nations. One of the main reasons Roosevelt ran for a third term in 1940, is that he was afraid an isolationist would take the Democrat nomination instead. Therefore, to keep America out of the war, Roosevelt must also die.
The best opportunity would be the assassination attempt by Giuseppe Zangara in February of 1933. ITTL, the attempt succeeds, and John Nance Gardner becomes president instead. A lot of alternate histories speculate on how Gardner would have handled the Depression differently, but in my opinion, there would be no significant changes to the 1930s. The Depression will end on its own regardless of what policies the President is pushing, and also Gardner agreed with Roosevelt on most of the New Deal. Those things he disapproved of passed congress by veto-proof margins. At most, he would be anti-union, but this likely will not change things much.
1936
To reduce the chance of Japan dragging America into the war, the attention of Japan must be kept focused in other directions. I would have the February 26th coup succeed and the Kōdōha faction takes over the Japanese government. They strongly supported the Northern Road strategy, and believed it was Japan's destiny to conquer eastern Russia. This will make Japan much more useful to Germany than OTL, where the only useful thing they did was put pressure on the British in East Asia.
1937
As a butterfly affect of the February 26th Coup succeeding, the Marco Polo Bridge incident does not happen, and the Japanese do not declare war on China.
1939
IOTL the Japanese defeat at the Battle of Khalkhin Gol helped convince the high command that a war with Russia would be a mistake. This was also one of the first battles won by General Georgy Zhukov, the greatest general the Soviets had. I want Japan to invade Russia alongside Germany, so ITTL Japan gets really lucky and wins the Battle of Khalkhin Gol. This was only a skirmish really, and the superiority of the Soviet Army over the Japanese army was not a key factor. As a bonus, Georgy Zhukov is killed by a stray shot
1940
This is the year where things really start popping. First, American isolationism must be guaranteed. I already removed Roosevelt, now I want to replace him with the most isolationist candidate available in 1940. My choice would be Robert Taft. He was a candidate in the Republican primary, and the leader of the isolationist branch of the Republicans. ITTL, he wins the primary and the presidency. This means no embargoes on Japan (already unlikely, since they did not invade China), no lend lease, no cash and carry, no neutrality patrols, no getting British warships fixed in American ports, and so on.
The absence of Churchill all but guarantees that Lord Halifax will be chosen as Prime Minister of the UK. Halifax was a much weaker man than Churchill, he pushed several times for a negotiated peace in 1940, even suggesting Churchill's belligerent refusal to discuss a peaceful settlement with Germany was irrational. Now, with no American support, the situation is much worse. Honestly, the changes I have already made would probably be enough to make Halifax cave. However, there are a number of other lucky breaks I can give the Germans from 1940 to 1941, which will make the British feel like the roof is falling in, and require very little change in history.
First, Halifax will make three mistakes, which Churchill narrowly avoided. First, he will ignore the advice of General Alan Brooke, and instead listen to Lord Gort and the British high command and fail to evacuate the BEF in time before they are all captured or killed by the Germans. Next, he will dismiss the concerns of Marshall Hugh Dowding (who was regarded as a defeatist, and had a bad habit of offending politicians), and fully commit Britain's Spitfires to contesting the English channel with the Luftwaffe. Butterfly affects from this lead Hitler to launch Operation Eagle Attack a month earlier, instead of spending that time negotiating, and maintaining the pressure on the RAF bases at least a month longer. These two changes lead to Britain losing the Battle of Britain, and the Germans gaining air superiority over the English Channel and southern England.
Halifax's last blunder involves Malta. IOTL, Churchill decided, against the advice of his military advisors, to keep trying to resupply Malta, despite it's dangerous position near Italy, since the gallant defenders of Malta holding out against the odds was a strong symbol of British resistance to him. ITTL, Halifax decides holding Malta is more trouble than it is worth and evacuates the British forces there instead, allowing the Italians to take the island with little struggle. This will be more relevant next year.
The situation in North Africa will be improved when General Italo Balbo is not accidentally shot down, and remains in command, as he was one of the Italians better commanders
(One other thing I decided to add, Operation Fish will meet with disaster when the convoy is separated due to bad weather and the Emerald and the Batory are sunk by u-boats, causing economic crisis in Britain)
In Mid-1940, Wilhelm Canaris' ploting against Hitler is exposed by Heydrich, and he is executed. His absence means that the British do not learn about the plans for Operation Barbarossa, and Spain joins the war on the side of the Axis powers
1941
Spain's entry into the war allows the Germans to launch Operation Felix, the capture of Gibralter. Portugal join the war on the side of Britain, but the Germans follow through with Operation Isabelle, and Portugal falls as quickly as Greece did.
With Malta under Italian control, Rommel is able to get more supplies for the War in Africa. After a great victory, he even manages to persuade Hitler to send him reinforcements. With these changes, Rommel crushes the British forces in Egypt in a decisive battle and sweeps across northern Egypt towards the Suez Canal. Simultaneous with this, the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem incites an anti-British revolt in the Transjordan, and the Anglo-Iraq War also breaks out between pro-British and pro-Axis forces. Faced with the potential loss of the Middle East and the Suez Canal, Halifax breaks completely, and agrees to a negotiated peace. Hitler offers generous terms, both because he likes the British, and because he is already preparing for Operation Barbarossa and wants no distractions
(I could, if I wanted to, also have the Bismark not get sunk. It would be easy to have the torpedo that hit her rudder miss, and the Argus could have launched no more air attacks before Bismark was safe again in Axis waters)
Honestly, the invasion of Russia couldn't have gone much better for the Germans. They wiped out the Soviet Airforce on the ground, and Stalin had just gutted the military of his best generals and replaced them with political yes-men. ITTL, the Germans are in an even better situation, with the Japanese invading Russia from the east and forcing them into a two-front war, while Germany now has to fight on only one front, and their factories are not being bombed into rubble from the west. Also, America will be giving Russia no lend lease, and Georgy Zhukov is dead.
The two big mistakes Germany made were 1) treating the slavs so inhumanly, and 2) Hitler micro-managing the war effort. Unfortunately, it would be too improbable for Hitler to change his views on these issues. Therefore, Hitler must die.
What actually inspired me was a video I saw on YouTube where three different alternate history YouTubers were debating how best to change history so that Germany would win World War 2. I decided that I would make my own version of this, using my preferred alternate history style. I looked at Germany's three main enemies in World War 2 (Russia, Britain, and the United States) and tried to identify when Germany came closest to defeating them, and what probable divergences I could use to tip the odds in the favor of the Nazis. I would break down my ideas as I go year by year through the divergences.
1931
The closest Germany ever came to defeating Britain was in the very beginning of the war, 1940-1941. The British were unprepared for war, Germany seemed invincible, and many in Britain felt that fighting on was hopeless and they should seek a negotiated peace. Winston Churchill was the backbone of British resistance to the Germans. He held firm against all calls for a negotiated peace and insisted Britain fight to the end. Therefore, for Germany to win, Churchill must die.
The best opportunity is in 1931, when Winston Churchill got in an accident while in New York because he forgot which way cars drive on American streets. IOTL, he survived the accident with a few cracked ribs. ITTL, the car is going a bit faster and hits at a slightly different angle, and Churchill suffers internal injuries and died in the hospital.
1933
The only reliable way for Germany to defeat America, is not to fight America. As soon as America enters the war, victory is nearly impossible for the Germans. However, keeping America out of the war is very plausible. Even in 1940, Americans were more than 70% in favor of isolationism. Franklin D. Roosevelt all but dragged America into the war, leveeing heavy embargoes on Japan and providing far more aid to Britain that would be permitted under the laws regarded neutral nations. One of the main reasons Roosevelt ran for a third term in 1940, is that he was afraid an isolationist would take the Democrat nomination instead. Therefore, to keep America out of the war, Roosevelt must also die.
The best opportunity would be the assassination attempt by Giuseppe Zangara in February of 1933. ITTL, the attempt succeeds, and John Nance Gardner becomes president instead. A lot of alternate histories speculate on how Gardner would have handled the Depression differently, but in my opinion, there would be no significant changes to the 1930s. The Depression will end on its own regardless of what policies the President is pushing, and also Gardner agreed with Roosevelt on most of the New Deal. Those things he disapproved of passed congress by veto-proof margins. At most, he would be anti-union, but this likely will not change things much.
1936
To reduce the chance of Japan dragging America into the war, the attention of Japan must be kept focused in other directions. I would have the February 26th coup succeed and the Kōdōha faction takes over the Japanese government. They strongly supported the Northern Road strategy, and believed it was Japan's destiny to conquer eastern Russia. This will make Japan much more useful to Germany than OTL, where the only useful thing they did was put pressure on the British in East Asia.
1937
As a butterfly affect of the February 26th Coup succeeding, the Marco Polo Bridge incident does not happen, and the Japanese do not declare war on China.
1939
IOTL the Japanese defeat at the Battle of Khalkhin Gol helped convince the high command that a war with Russia would be a mistake. This was also one of the first battles won by General Georgy Zhukov, the greatest general the Soviets had. I want Japan to invade Russia alongside Germany, so ITTL Japan gets really lucky and wins the Battle of Khalkhin Gol. This was only a skirmish really, and the superiority of the Soviet Army over the Japanese army was not a key factor. As a bonus, Georgy Zhukov is killed by a stray shot
1940
This is the year where things really start popping. First, American isolationism must be guaranteed. I already removed Roosevelt, now I want to replace him with the most isolationist candidate available in 1940. My choice would be Robert Taft. He was a candidate in the Republican primary, and the leader of the isolationist branch of the Republicans. ITTL, he wins the primary and the presidency. This means no embargoes on Japan (already unlikely, since they did not invade China), no lend lease, no cash and carry, no neutrality patrols, no getting British warships fixed in American ports, and so on.
The absence of Churchill all but guarantees that Lord Halifax will be chosen as Prime Minister of the UK. Halifax was a much weaker man than Churchill, he pushed several times for a negotiated peace in 1940, even suggesting Churchill's belligerent refusal to discuss a peaceful settlement with Germany was irrational. Now, with no American support, the situation is much worse. Honestly, the changes I have already made would probably be enough to make Halifax cave. However, there are a number of other lucky breaks I can give the Germans from 1940 to 1941, which will make the British feel like the roof is falling in, and require very little change in history.
First, Halifax will make three mistakes, which Churchill narrowly avoided. First, he will ignore the advice of General Alan Brooke, and instead listen to Lord Gort and the British high command and fail to evacuate the BEF in time before they are all captured or killed by the Germans. Next, he will dismiss the concerns of Marshall Hugh Dowding (who was regarded as a defeatist, and had a bad habit of offending politicians), and fully commit Britain's Spitfires to contesting the English channel with the Luftwaffe. Butterfly affects from this lead Hitler to launch Operation Eagle Attack a month earlier, instead of spending that time negotiating, and maintaining the pressure on the RAF bases at least a month longer. These two changes lead to Britain losing the Battle of Britain, and the Germans gaining air superiority over the English Channel and southern England.
Halifax's last blunder involves Malta. IOTL, Churchill decided, against the advice of his military advisors, to keep trying to resupply Malta, despite it's dangerous position near Italy, since the gallant defenders of Malta holding out against the odds was a strong symbol of British resistance to him. ITTL, Halifax decides holding Malta is more trouble than it is worth and evacuates the British forces there instead, allowing the Italians to take the island with little struggle. This will be more relevant next year.
The situation in North Africa will be improved when General Italo Balbo is not accidentally shot down, and remains in command, as he was one of the Italians better commanders
(One other thing I decided to add, Operation Fish will meet with disaster when the convoy is separated due to bad weather and the Emerald and the Batory are sunk by u-boats, causing economic crisis in Britain)
In Mid-1940, Wilhelm Canaris' ploting against Hitler is exposed by Heydrich, and he is executed. His absence means that the British do not learn about the plans for Operation Barbarossa, and Spain joins the war on the side of the Axis powers
1941
Spain's entry into the war allows the Germans to launch Operation Felix, the capture of Gibralter. Portugal join the war on the side of Britain, but the Germans follow through with Operation Isabelle, and Portugal falls as quickly as Greece did.
With Malta under Italian control, Rommel is able to get more supplies for the War in Africa. After a great victory, he even manages to persuade Hitler to send him reinforcements. With these changes, Rommel crushes the British forces in Egypt in a decisive battle and sweeps across northern Egypt towards the Suez Canal. Simultaneous with this, the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem incites an anti-British revolt in the Transjordan, and the Anglo-Iraq War also breaks out between pro-British and pro-Axis forces. Faced with the potential loss of the Middle East and the Suez Canal, Halifax breaks completely, and agrees to a negotiated peace. Hitler offers generous terms, both because he likes the British, and because he is already preparing for Operation Barbarossa and wants no distractions
(I could, if I wanted to, also have the Bismark not get sunk. It would be easy to have the torpedo that hit her rudder miss, and the Argus could have launched no more air attacks before Bismark was safe again in Axis waters)
Honestly, the invasion of Russia couldn't have gone much better for the Germans. They wiped out the Soviet Airforce on the ground, and Stalin had just gutted the military of his best generals and replaced them with political yes-men. ITTL, the Germans are in an even better situation, with the Japanese invading Russia from the east and forcing them into a two-front war, while Germany now has to fight on only one front, and their factories are not being bombed into rubble from the west. Also, America will be giving Russia no lend lease, and Georgy Zhukov is dead.
The two big mistakes Germany made were 1) treating the slavs so inhumanly, and 2) Hitler micro-managing the war effort. Unfortunately, it would be too improbable for Hitler to change his views on these issues. Therefore, Hitler must die.
